One of the enduring lessons from the film Moneyball is that elite teams often succeed not simply by acquiring top-tier talent, but by maximizing every dollar spent. Constructing a winning roster isn’t just about landing stars—it’s about identifying undervalued contributors and avoiding overpaying for production that doesn’t move the needle. Smart financial management is as important as basketball acumen.
NBA front offices today use increasingly sophisticated methods to determine a player’s on-court value in monetary terms. One such approach was proposed by analytics expert and former Milwaukee Bucks Director of Basketball Research, Seth Partnow, in his book The Midrange Theory. Partnow described a model where a player’s on-court impact is translated into dollar value by multiplying their impact by the estimated financial value of a win during that NBA season.
How We Calculated Player Value
Due to the unavailability of Real-Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)—a key stat in Partnow’s original methodology—we turned to a different advanced metric: Estimated Wins (EW), provided by the analytics site Dunks & Threes. This stat attempts to quantify how many wins a player contributes to their team in a given season.
By multiplying a player’s EW by the estimated financial value of a win (which we approximate at $3.4 million for the 2024-25 season), we can estimate how much that player “should” be making based solely on their impact. From there, we compare that value to the actual average annual value (AAV) of their contract. If their contract exceeds their estimated value, it signals inefficient spending by the team. This method allows us to identify contracts that may be hindering Sacramento’s cap flexibility.
The Sacramento Kings’ Three Most Overpaid Players in 2024-25
With this method in hand, we examined the 2024-25 season to determine which players on the Kings’ payroll provided the least return on investment. These results are not intended to critique the players personally, but rather to assess how well the organization allocated its salary resources relative to actual on-court contributions.
Let’s dive into the three contracts that stood out as the least cost-effective for Sacramento this past season.
| Player Name | Production Value | 2024-25 Salary | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach LaVine | 23.1 Million | 44.5 Million | -21.4 Million |
| Domantas Sabonis | 34 Million | 40.5 Million | -6.5 Million |
| Trey Lyles | 2 Million | 8 Million | -6 Million |
For those wondering, the chart is sorted so that the player with the lowest difference (remember, the more negative, the lower) between their production value and 2024-25 salary is at the top, then the second, etc.
You likely noticed that the Kings’ two best players also have the team’s two worst contracts. Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis both produce a ton of value, but when you get a max-level contract, it is really hard to live up to that standard when you are not playing at an All-Star level (neither of them was named to the All-Star team this year).
Trey Lyles was the team’s third-worst contract this year based on this formula. Lyles struggled offensively for most of the season. After shooting nearly 60% true shooting every year from 2022 to 2024, Lyles’ efficiency fell to just 54.9%.
Leave a Reply