Duke and freshman sensation Cooper Flagg took care of business in their NCAA Tournament opener, steamrolling Mount St. Mary’s 93-49. With the dominant victory, the Blue Devils now move on to face No. 9 seed Baylor in Sunday’s second-round matchup, where the competition will significantly intensify.
Flagg’s return to the court was a welcome sight for Duke fans, especially after his ankle injury in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals had raised concerns about both his availability and long-term outlook. As one of the most highly touted prospects in this year’s NBA Draft class, his health has been under close watch. However, any lingering doubts about his condition were quickly put to rest. The 6-foot-9 freshman logged a team-high 22 minutes, delivering an efficient performance with 14 points on 6-of-12 shooting, seven rebounds, and four assists. His ability to impact the game across multiple areas highlighted why he remains a near-lock for the No. 1 overall pick in most mock drafts.
The National Championship Push and a Shocking Possibility
Duke head coach Jon Scheyer is counting on Flagg to maintain this level of production as the Blue Devils chase what would be their first national title since 2015. But if their championship hopes fall short, an unexpected scenario could emerge—one that few considered possible when Flagg first arrived in Durham: a potential return for a sophomore season.
According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo, a premature exit from the tournament could give Flagg reason to pause before making the jump to the NBA. He has until the early entry deadline of April 26 to declare for the draft, leaving room for speculation about his next move. The evolving landscape of college basketball, particularly with the explosion of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, has provided top prospects with financial flexibility that was previously unavailable.
Flagg, who has already secured millions in NIL earnings, isn’t facing the same immediate financial pressure that past one-and-done stars encountered. That financial security could theoretically allow him to prioritize factors like personal growth, development, and legacy over an immediate NBA payday. However, the idea of returning to college, while intriguing, is not without significant risks.
The Financial and Career Risks of Returning
If Flagg were to return to Duke, the financial implications could be staggering. ESPN’s Bobby Marks estimates that delaying his entry into the NBA could cost him between $75 million and $125 million in long-term salary earnings. The reason? The NBA’s salary structure rewards longevity, and pushing back the start of his professional career could delay his eligibility for lucrative second and third contracts. Specifically, players with 10 years of NBA service become eligible for a supermax contract—one that allows teams to allocate up to 35% of their salary cap toward a single player. Any delay in reaching that milestone could have a dramatic impact on his career earnings.
Additionally, the potential for injury looms as a major concern. A significant setback, particularly one that affects his long-term athleticism, could jeopardize his draft stock and earning potential. Given these financial and health risks, an Eastern Conference scout told ESPN that he couldn’t recall a projected No. 1 overall pick ever voluntarily returning to college.
Of course, there’s always a small chance that Flagg isn’t the unanimous top pick. While nearly every major mock draft, including Sporting News’ Gilbert McGregor, has him locked in at No. 1, other prospects such as Rutgers’ Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe remain in the conversation. However, it would take an unforeseen shift for Flagg to lose his grip on the top spot.
What’s Next for Flagg and Duke?
For now, Flagg’s focus remains on leading Duke through the tournament, beginning with their high-stakes showdown against Baylor. As the competition stiffens, his ankle will continue to be a point of interest. If another injury were to occur—especially one that hinders his play or shortens Duke’s postseason run—the speculation surrounding his draft decision could intensify.
As the Blue Devils push forward, all eyes will remain on the 18-year-old phenom. This NCAA Tournament run could define the next phase of his career, whether that means a move to the NBA or, in a shocking twist, a return to Durham for another season.
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