Player Breakdown:
For this piece, I’m focusing on recently acquired reliever Phil Maton, a pitcher I knew little about before diving into the research.
Maton will enter his age-32 season in 2025 as a right-handed middle reliever with a career FIP of 4.00—right on the borderline between solid and average. His arsenal includes a fairly even mix of three main pitches: a cutter, curveball, and slider (each thrown around 30% of the time, with a slight bias toward the cutter), plus an occasional sinker (<10% usage). Some sources classify his slider as a sweeper—it’s harder and less frequently thrown, making it easier to identify.
Over his eight-year MLB career, Maton has bounced around, starting with the Padres in 2017 before making stops in Cleveland, Houston, Tampa Bay, and the Mets. He’s been traded midseason three times, making him no stranger to packing his bags. Notably, after leaving San Diego, he spent time with some of the most well-regarded pitching development organizations in baseball—perhaps making him a valuable source of insight into their pitching labs.
St. Louis signed him for $2 million, though when factoring in the league minimum salary they would’ve paid another reliever, the “veteran premium” on this signing is only about $1.2 million.
2024 Performance Breakdown
Rather than focusing too much on career numbers, I’ll hone in on Maton’s 2024 performance, with occasional references to past seasons for context.
How He Stacks Up Against Other Pitchers
Maton’s 2024 Statcast rankings reveal an interesting contrast: his fastball velocity ranked among the lowest in the league, yet its run value placed in the upper 20th percentile. While it might not be “elite,” it’s certainly above average.
His overall profile leans heavily on generating weak contact.
Why His Fastball Works Despite Low Velocity
One key factor in Maton’s success is his exceptional extension—ranking in the 95th percentile. In simple terms, he releases the ball closer to home plate, shortening the distance it travels. This means that while his cutter averages just 87.5 mph, it appears faster to hitters.
Early in his career, Maton threw a harder (93.5 mph) four-seamer with arm-side run, but it produced poor results, yielding negative run values. Over time, he transitioned to a cutter—losing velocity each year but improving glove-side movement, which led to better outcomes. He now consistently elevates the cutter in the strike zone.
Pitch Movement & Effectiveness
His fastball has above-average rise and some notable run, which, combined with his extension, helps explain its unexpected effectiveness.
His curveball also stands out—it’s slow, has extreme horizontal break beyond the norm, and even a bit more drop than average. No surprise that Stuff+ rated it at 141 in 2024. Meanwhile, his sinker and slider are relatively ordinary, which likely explains their limited use. The sweeper, however, boasts impressive glove-side movement—18 inches compared to the league average of 14.
Spin Rates & Pitch Quality
Maton is known for his elite spin rates, and Statcast data backs it up. His curveball and cutter rank well above league average in spin-induced movement, while his lesser-used pitches (sinker, slider) lag behind.
His Spin Direction Radial Maps offer even more insight, but interpreting them fully would require an expert like Blake. From a hitter’s perspective, his sinker and curve might seem like they should complement each other (opposite movement on the same spin axis), but results suggest otherwise. It could be that hitters prioritize defending against his dominant curveball and simply adjust when facing his less effective sinker.
How He Handles Lefties vs. Righties
Maton doesn’t have a drastic platoon split. In 2024, he held both left-handed (.643 OPS) and right-handed (.646 OPS) hitters to nearly identical results. Historically, he’s had seasons where lefties fared slightly better against him.
Against left-handed hitters, he leans more on his curveball and cutter, while against righties, he deploys a wider mix of pitches.
Interestingly, in 2024, he faced more righties than lefties—a shift from prior years. Could Tampa Bay and the Mets have noticed something in his underlying metrics that made them prefer right-on-right matchups? Or was it just a fluke? Hard to say. Given the Cardinals’ deep left-handed bullpen, we may see a similar trend continue.
Role with the Cardinals
Maton likely projects as a right-handed bridge to closer Ryan Helsley, though it’s unclear how he’ll split high-leverage spots with Giovanny Gallegos.
One potential concern: his 8th and 9th inning performance in 2024 was noticeably worse than in earlier innings. His ERA jumped to 4.88 in the 8th and 7.00 in the 9th, with a WHIP of 1.30 and 1.78, respectively. These innings made up about half his workload, but prior seasons don’t show the same struggles, so it may just be a small-sample anomaly. Something to watch.
Additional Observations
- Weak Contact Specialist: Maton ranks among the league leaders in lowest Barrel% and exit velocity, but his strikeout rate (22.7%) is merely average.
- Walk Rate: His 9.1% walk rate is slightly above the 8.4% league average, which could make high-leverage outings more nerve-wracking.
- Home Runs: He allowed 11 HR in 2024, 10 of which would have left Busch Stadium. No cheap home runs in his profile.
- Spring Training Update: Maton joined the Cardinals late in camp but appeared ready to go. His cutter velocity ticked up to 91-92 mph (from last year’s 87.5 mph), with solid vertical and horizontal movement.
Final Thoughts
Between the time I started writing this and now, some early 2025 Statcast data has emerged. Though it’s too soon to draw firm conclusions, Maton’s cutter has shown increased velocity and movement in the early going—an encouraging sign.
For now, he looks poised to be the Cardinals’ go-to right-handed setup man. Whether he thrives in that role remains to be seen, but if his increased velocity holds, he could prove to be a sneaky good addition to the bullpen.
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