The all-star pitcher and the Astros have sidestepped arbitration by agreeing to an $18 million salary for the 2025 season—a move that appears to be the only contract-related discussion between the two sides this winter. At the start of camp, Valdez noted that the team had not yet broached the subject of a long-term extension with his agents at Octagon, and that sentiment has persisted throughout Spring Training, as he told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters yesterday.
With him set to hit free agency after the current season, he acknowledged that he plans to test the market, responding “Yes, I think so” when asked about his intentions. Although there’s nothing preventing ongoing negotiations during the season, most players prefer to settle contract talks by Opening Day to avoid any distractions once the games begin. In this instance, however, his comments suggest that any discussion about an extension has yet to get off the ground.
Since becoming a full-time member of Houston’s rotation in 2020, the left-handed pitcher has emerged as a crucial part of the Astros’ success. Over the 2020-2024 seasons, he has posted a 3.12 ERA, maintained a strikeout rate of 23.9%, a walk rate of 7.9%, and achieved an impressive 62.2% grounder rate over 781 innings—a statistic that stands as the best among all qualified pitchers over the past five seasons, with his total innings ranking as the seventh-most in the league. Although a broken finger sidelined him for about two months during the 2021 campaign and a brief stint on the IL for elbow soreness limited his play last season, Framber Valdez has otherwise been remarkably consistent in his health and performance.
In addition to his regular season workload, which has been bolstered by 85 innings of postseason action, Valdez delivered some of his finest work during the Astros’ 2022 World Series championship run, registering a stellar 2.07 ERA over 25 innings to help secure the title. While his production has fluctuated at times, his overall performance suggests that if he can maintain his standard in 2025, he’ll be in a strong position to command a significant contract next winter as a top-of-the-rotation starter known for both durability and playoff experience.
Nonetheless, there are some concerns that might explain the Astros’ hesitancy to pursue a long-term extension with Valdez. The pitcher has allowed a considerable amount of hard contact over the years, though his .282 BABIP from 2020-24 indicates that this may be partly due to luck. Moreover, Valdez doesn’t rely on overwhelming fastball velocity, instead leaning on a highly effective slider and curveball combination to deceive batters. His strikeout and walk numbers are generally average, which puts more pressure on his ground-ball approach to keep him effective.
Astros GM Dana Brown indicated in December that while the team would entertain trade offers for Valdez, his importance to the rotation meant that any such talks were more about due diligence than a real intent to move him. Ultimately, the Astros ended up dealing another pending free agent in Kyle Tucker, a move that freed up payroll while creating a gap in the outfield. This decision may suggest that Houston received a more attractive offer for Tucker from the Cubs or that the organization prioritized maintaining a stable pitching rotation after a season marred by injuries to several pitchers.
Historically, Houston has been cautious about handing out long-term extensions during its recent era of success. Two notable deals—the five-year, $64 million contract for Cristian Javier just before the 2023 season and Lance McCullers Jr.’s five-year, $85 million agreement signed before Opening Day 2021—haven’t yet paid off, as McCullers has missed over two seasons with injuries and Javier recently underwent Tommy John surgery. Given Valdez’s relative stability and consistent production, those contracts likely loom large in the minds of the Astros’ decision-makers, especially as Valdez will be looking for a much larger salary in free agency.
Unless there’s a sudden change of heart between Valdez and the Astros, it seems likely that he will be the latest prominent star to leave the organization in free agency, with the team at least hoping to recover some draft compensation through the qualifying offer process.
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