It’s finally game day. The San Francisco 49ers are just hours away from playing the Green Bay Packers at Levi’s Stadium, with an NFC Championship Game berth on the line.
It’s been a different route for both teams, who faced their own adversity early in the season but recovered to enter the playoffs, with the 49ers rising to the No. 1 spot and the Packers slipping in at the No. 7 seed.
Green Bay enters this game on a high note, having won seven of their last nine games, including a lopsided victory over the Dallas Cowboys in the wildcard round last weekend.
They’ll now travel to San Francisco with momentum and nothing to lose against a 49ers team that has reached the NFC Championship Game three out of the last four seasons.
In our most recent audio episode, we talked about the 49ers’ divisional-round meeting with the Packers, highlighting the major causes for hope and anxiety, both now and in the future.
Reasons for optimism.
The 49ers approach the playoffs with perhaps the NFL’s strongest roster, as evidenced by their record. This season, there appears to be a trend in the NFC where better teams have beaten better quarterbacks, as seen in all three NFC wildcard games.
In the playoffs, many teams rely on quarterbacks to carry the load, but the more balanced teams were successful, which benefits the 49ers, who not only run the ball at the second-highest rate in football, but also have arguably the best team in the NFC, putting themselves in good position for a run.
Furthermore, the path to the Super Bowl is likely to be easier than it has been in each of San Francisco’s previous playoff appearances under Kyle Shanahan. If they beat the seventh-seeded Packers, they’ll meet either the Detroit Lions or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game, which will also be held at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers appear to be near-touchdown favorites in that game, according to the odds.
Many of the 49ers’ presumed greatest threats, such as the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys, were ousted in the first round, and San Francisco matches up favorably against the majority, if not all, of the remaining teams.
Finally, San Francisco is as healthy as it has been into a postseason run, with all of their best players scheduled to face Green Bay, with the exception of defensive end Clelin Ferrell.
San Francisco has suffered from injuries in the past, but this year’s roster is incredibly skilled, and it’s all coming together.
Reasons for Concern
The most pressing issue for a No. 1 seed in the playoffs is rust, especially given the 49ers haven’t played a meaningful game in over three weeks.
Now, I do expect the 49ers to be aggressive and come out firing against a favorable matchup for their offense, but I noted how the first half could be significant for how this game could go, since the Packers are one of the best second-half teams in the NFL.
The 49ers have been practicing hard since last week to prepare for the playoff situation. The question is, how quickly will they adjust on Saturday?
The other major issue, which is more related to recency bias, but must be addressed, is kicker Jake Moody’s struggles in Week 18.
Moody missed two chip shots in the last week of the season. While the game was meaningless, it’s not a good omen for the rookie kicker to close his regular season on a low note.
When it came to qualifying kickers, Moody placed 20th with an 84 percent field goal percentage, and every player but one had more attempts than the rookie’s 25.
San Francisco cannot afford to leave points on the board in the playoffs, but that will depend on Moody’s performance on Saturday. If he can maintain consistency, the 49ers will be in good hands, especially with Moody’s leg strength.
However, given the possibility of rain against the Packers in the divisional round, it is cause for concern.
