As Collingwood looks to bounce back from that downturn, this is going to happen.

The Magpies have high expectations going into 2025 after adding Tim Membrey, Harry Perryman, and Dan Houston to their roster, solidifying the most seasoned team in the league while once again ignoring the draft. Despite dropping down the ladder as the defending premiers last year, with only one less victory than premier Brisbane, they are very much focused on the present and aiming to capture a second flag in three years. In addition to injuries and a lack of team continuity, the Pies also had costly mistakes during the season.

Both premiers before them — Geelong (2022) and Richmond (2021) – also missed finals the following year, and have gone in opposite directions since.

As Collingwood looks to bounce back from that downturn, history suggests there’s always one club that climbs from outside the finals into the top four.

And former Hawthorn sharpshooter Ben Dixon is picking that team to be the Pies.

“They’ve had some pretty good additions this off-season. I’ve got them playing off in the Grand Final, so that’s a big rise when you think about it … I reckon they’re the bolter,” he told foxfooty.com.au.

“Like any good team, sides figure you out — so you’ve got to find a way through, and I think they’re innovative enough as a team. Injuries hurt them last year at critical times, and because the previous year they went on such a big run when winning close games, last year didn’t fall that way.

“But I think the learnings from that, with the maturity they got at their top end is pretty damaging.”

Indeed, the top end is high quality, but it’s also getting on. Collingwood now has 10 players on its list aged 30 plus — with a further two players to turn 30 during the season.

And so health is the Pies’ most important player in 2025.

It comes as Collingwood retained all its veterans that were out of contract last season, re-signing champion trio Scott Pendlebury, Jeremy Howe and Steele Sidebottom plus Will Hoskin-Elliott.

That’s been questioned given the lack of young talent coming through outside of Nick Daicos as the club has kicked that can down the road and stuck by this group.