Dylan Cease has been one of the most talked-about free agents this offseason, and for good reason. He has a lifetime 3.83 ERA, finished second in the Cy Young race, and is regularly among the top 5-10 in strikeouts. That slider is awful. Chris Getz, the White Sox’s general manager, has yet to find a trade that would justify giving up one of the league’s best pitchers. The White Sox and Yankees’ trade talks have recently heated up, but no deal has been reached as of yet.
Earlier this week, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that New York is still looking to bolster their starting rotation with Gerrit Cole, the reigning American League Cy Young winner, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortés, and newly acquired Marcus Stroman – especially since the latter three all suffered injuries last year and Dylan Cease is still in his prime at 28 years old.
While Blake Snell is available, the Yankees have the opportunity to make a splash and add two Cy Young winners to their pitching staff. They’re seeking for a less expensive option that will keep them competitive in a tough AL East division while also avoiding the Competitive Balance Tax.
There have been various “mock trades” circulating, and the Baseball transaction Values website has highlighted a transaction between these teams on its homepage for the past week.
Naturally, I had to look into this trade a little.
This move appears to have received a positive reaction from Yankees supporters, but White Sox fans, like me, are likely to be apprehensive of a (possibly risky) prospect-heavy trade without a near-MLB ready player.
Nightingale also mentions in his story that the White Sox aren’t interested in a deal that excludes the Yankees’ best prospect, outfielder Spencer Jones. As one might think, the Yankees are hesitant to send Jones to the South Side, relying on Cease to perform at the same level he did in 2022. The good news for us Sox fans is that Chris Getz appears to be rather adamant about what the return would need to be for a deal to work.
And there’s a good reason why the Yankees don’t want to let Spencer Jones leave, especially after he hit a home run in his first Spring Training at bat. And he’s been on fire for the first three games. In seven at-bats, he has five hits (including a home run), one walk, and one strikeout, for a slash line of.714/.778/1.143. Sure, it’s only seven at-bats in Spring Training, but at 6’6″, with that much power? It’s virtually Aaron Judge level, but as a lefty who can steal 40 bases per year.
The Players:
Now, if the Yankees aren’t willing to dole out Jones, consider some of the other choices presented in the aforementioned hypothetical trade:
Roderick Arias – shortstop
The highest-rated element of this mock deal is Roderick Arias, another of the Yankees’ elite prospects and the fourth-best NYY prospect according to FanGraphs. He was signed from the international draft in 2022 as an 18-year-old Dominican Republic player. While he struggled in his first year in the DSL, he much improved in 2023, hitting.267/.423/.505 with six home runs and 26 RBIs in 27 FCL games. He obviously has a lot of promise, but his injury troubles in his first two seasons kept him sidelined for a long time, and he has yet to play a full season in the minors.
When I read about his injuries, I instantly became concerned, knowing how common injuries have been for the White Sox in recent years. Still, it doesn’t sound like they were really worrying. Another factor to consider for Chicago is that Colson Montgomery is expected to be the South Side’s starting shortstop within the next several years, which raises the question, “How does Arias fit into this equation?” Could he potentially switch to 2B and ultimately address that problem? Of course, this would be several years in the future and may not even be an option, but I will never stop dreaming of a full-time, quality starting second baseman.
Everson Pereira, Outfielder
Everson Pereira was brought up to the big leagues in the last weeks of last season after the Yankees were eliminated from playoff contention. According to Pinstripe Alley, his short sample size of 27 games was “unappetizing at best.” Woof.
Pereira’s slash line after getting called up was.151/.233/.194, with a horrific 43% strikeout rate. His performance in the minors, however, was far more outstanding. He started the season in Double-A, where he played the most of his games and had a.907 OPS, before being promoted to Triple-A, where his batting average rose along with his.937 OPS. He played 11 fewer games at Triple-A, but he hit about the same number of home runs (eight versus ten in Double-A), demonstrating that he can play at a higher level.
Does Pereira show potential of overcoming his high strikeout rate while adjusting to MLB pitching? Because the White Sox don’t need another outfielder bouncing around Triple-A all season, as Danny Mendick did in 2022.
Clayton Beeter, Starting Pitcher
Beeter, a 25-year-old righthander chosen in 2020, has only pitched in the minor leagues. In 2023, he started 26 of 27 games and had a 3.62 ERA in 131 â…” innings at Double and Triple-A levels. He struggled a little more with the increased competition in Triple-A, earning a 4.94 ERA compared to 2.08 in Double-A, but he also struck out 13 more batters, demonstrating that he can clearly cause opponents to swing and miss at a high rate. As a young athlete, there is time to improve him, and he has already seen a near ~3 mph gain on his fastball, averaging closer to 96 vs. 93 last year.
Ben Rice – Catcher/First Base
Ben Rice is an interesting aspect of this transaction, except that the White Sox are unlikely to need another 1B/DH type. The difference here is that Ben Rice is a left-handed power hitter who does not strike out frequently, which the Sox could surely use. In 48 Double-A games, he hit 16 home runs and posted a 1.049 OPS. This level of productivity from a catcher would be unprecedented for the White Sox since Yasmani Grandal went off in 2021.
Rice is anticipated to spend the most of the season in Triple-A, and he could be ready for the majors in a few years. Outside of Edgar Quero, there isn’t much hope for catchers in the White Sox farm system, especially after Korey Lee struggled to make strong contact when brought up in 2023.
All that being stated, will the White Sox make this deal? Although some of these guys are exciting and have the potential to be great, I say no. The White Sox aren’t competing this year, so it makes sense to sell Cease while he’s still high if the South Siders want to compete in the future, but there’s no need to trade Cease without receiving as much as possible for him. Teams competing for postseason spots may be more desperate in June and July, when Chris Getz can get more bang for his buck if the opportunity arises.
Also, I really do not want him to go to the Yankees. The mustache is necessary.
Other teams still need a pitcher who could come in before the season starts. Dylan Cease’s deal is only $8 million in 2024, and some teams will gladly spend it – but will they be ready to part with top-tier prospects to do so?
Tell us what you think! Would you make this trade?
