After a dismal 2023 campaign, the New York Yankees are in the offseason. However, Baseball Prospectus thinks the Yankees will have a fantastic 2024. With simulations projecting a range of victories for each team entering the season, the website created its first PECOTA projected standings for the 2024 campaign. To assist in creating the projections, the website runs over 1,000 simulations using a simulator. Baseball Prospectus has a proprietary system called PECOTA, which stands for individual Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. It is used to estimate individual and team performance.
However, BP also uses the simulations to produce PECOTA standings. Those standing predict that the Yankees will have a significant comeback in 2024. With a forecast of 94.5 games won, the Yankees are only a tenth of a win behind the Houston Astros, who are expected to have the best record in the American League with 94.6 games won.
For the Yankees, who only won 83 games the previous season and missed the postseason, that would be a significant leap. Not only victories and defeats (for the record, 67.5 losses) are predicted by the models. The Yankees are predicted by BP to score 827 runs and allow 684 runs. According to the standings, the Yankees have a 59.5% probability of taking home the AL East, which Baltimore won the previous year. They have a 32% chance of making the Wild Card and a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs overall.
The Yankees have a 76.6% likelihood of making it to the Division Series and an 11.7% chance of winning the World Series from that point on. The Yankees should be able to approach that predicted win number with the addition of multiple players. To strengthen their outfield, the Yankees acquired outfielders Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo in addition to slugger Juan Soto. Marcus Stroman, a starter, was also signed by the Yankees to bolster their rotation. Next week, the pitchers and catchers for the Yankees will report to Tampa to start spring training.
