Only days after signing Rhys Hoskins to a two-year contract, which appeared to telegraph the team’s commitment to compete in 2024, the Brewers stunned the baseball world by sending ace Corbin Burnes to the Orioles for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (34th overall). They may still have a chance to win the division in a poor NL Central, but new reports from Milwaukee appear to back up worries of a mini-selloff.
The Brewers have a pair of impact players nearing free agency — shortstop Willy Adames and closer Devin Williams — that they could look to trade to restock a middling farm system with upper-level talent behind uber-prospect Jackson Chourio, and Williams is the type of reliever who could propel the Yankees’ bullpen to the top of the league.
2023 stats: 61 games, 58.2 innings pitched, 1.53 ERA (282 ERA+), 2.66 FIP, 2.79 xFIP, 37.7% K%, 12.1% BB%, 1.8 fWAR
2024 FanGraphs Depth Charts Projections: 66 games, 66 innings, 3.05 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 34.1 percent K%, 11.1 percent BB%, 1.3 fWAR
Contract Status: Signed a one-year contract worth $7.25 million to avoid arbitration in 2024. Will earn $7 million in 2024; the contract includes a team option for 2025 worth $10.5 million with a $250,000 buyout. Scheduled to become a free agent after the 2025 season.
Since his breakout in 2020, Williams has been the best reliever in baseball, no matter how you slice it. His 6.8 fWAR and 1.75 ERA are first among qualified pitchers over that span, while his 40.5 percent strikeout rate trails just Edwin Díaz, and his 2.26 FIP behind only Díaz and Matt Brash. Furthermore, his Statcast page is in deep red.
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Williams stormed into the spotlight in 2020, capturing NL Rookie of the Year with an amazing 0.33 ERA and 0.86 FIP in a COVID-shortened season. He followed it up with an excellent sophomore season, which sadly ended on a bad note when the reliever drunkenly punched a wall during the team’s division-clinching celebration. The Brewers were missing their standout setup man due to a broken hand, and they were eliminated from the NLDS by the Braves in four games, with Freddie Freeman’s go-ahead home run off Josh Hader in the eighth inning, which should have gone to Williams, sealing the series.
To his credit, Williams rebounded from that personal loss by making the All-Star team in consecutive seasons and winning his second Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year Award in 2023.
We’ve highlighted unicorn pitchers on the Yankees and around the league several times over the last year, and Williams’ changeup is possibly the best example of a ‘unicorn’ pitch in baseball.
Williams’ changeup is unlike any other in the league in that he pronates violently over the top, resulting in a spin rate of up to 3,000 RPM — about double the average changeup. Consider the pitch to be a screwball or a reverse slider; its extreme spin provides wicked movement — it had the most horizontal movement vs. average of any changeup in baseball in 2023, while also ranking in the top ten in vertical movement.
Overall, Williams’ changeup had the greatest overall movement of any pitch in baseball in 2023, with the fifth-highest whiff percentage (46.3 percent) of any cambio since his rookie year. Last year, Esteban highlighted Ron Marinaccio’s unicorn changeup, which is similar to the one Williams throws. One can only imagine the possibilities for information sharing and shared learning if Williams joins the bullpen, as he might be a huge help to a young pitcher who struggled in his sophomore season.
Most significantly, Williams would add top levels of pursuit and swing-and-miss to a Yankees bullpen that has lacked those qualities in recent years. While New York has long been at or near the top of the league in terms of ERA and inducing weak contact, they ranked in the middle of the pack in 2023 in metrics such as whiff rate (25.3 percent, 11th out of 30), chase rate (31.9 percent, 16th out of 30), K-BB% (14.1 percent, 17th out of 30), and CSW% (28.9 percent, 8th out of 30). Since his debut, Williams has ranked in the 81st percentile in chase rate, second in whiff rate, third in CSW%, and fourth in K-BB% among qualifying relievers. That is not to suggest Williams does not thrive in the soft contact department; in each of the last four seasons, he has been placed in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity against, hard-hit rate, and xwOBA.
It’s tough to locate a comparable transaction for Williams because most closers are dealt around the trade deadline and are essentially rentals, whereas Williams would come with two full years of team control if traded before Opening Day. In reality, the closest resemblance is arguably his former colleague Josh Hader, whom the Brewers sent to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for relievers Taylor Rogers and Dinelson Lamet, as well as top prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser. The Brewers later transformed Ruiz into William Contreras, the 2023 NL Silver Slugger at catcher, while Gasser is the team’s second-best pitching prospect, per MLB Pipeline.
The Burnes trade, in which the Brewers exchanged one year of Burnes for a pair of marginal top-100 prospects who could play for the big league club and a first-round draft pick, may also serve as an imperfect indication. Williams has six more months of team control than Hader when he was traded, but Hader’s ceiling and demand were higher at the time of the transaction, but Williams has a full year more team control than Burnes and will cost less than half of a team’s CBT figure.
Extrapolating from these two transactions, it may cost a package similar to the one that landed Burnes — two fringe top-100 prospects without the first-round draft pick — to acquire Williams from Milwaukee. Williams’ extra year of control and lower AAV increase his price, but he is unlikely to throw more than 130 innings over the next two seasons, but Burnes’ potential as an elite starting pitcher and Baltimore’s desperate need undoubtedly raised his price. That is a high price to pay for two years of a reliever, but one that the Yankees should consider. By partnering Williams with Clay Holmes in 2023, New York might produce one of the strongest one-two punches in the bullpen, and he would provide a readymade Holmes replacement when the current Yankees closer hits free agency at the conclusion of the year.
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Mets and Marlins pursue ex-Yankees slugger after injury-riddled season.
There will most certainly be numerous additions in the next weeks.
Spring Training is on the horizon and approaching quickly. There are still some excellent free agents available looking for new homes. One former New York Yankees player clearly matches this description.
Gio Urshela, a former Yankees utility man, spent the 2023 season with the Los Angeles Angels but only participated in 62 games due to injuries. He was solid on the field and sliced.299/.329/.374, but was unable to remain on the field.
He is now a free agent, and it appears he has a strong market. The Yankees have been considered as a possible landing spot for him, but they will have competition from the New York Mets and Miami Marlins, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi.
“Free agent (infielder) Gio Urshela has drawn interest from the Mets, Marlins, and Yankees, a source confirms,” Morosi wrote in a press release. “Urshela, 32, posted a .703 OPS in 62 games with the Angels last year.”
Urshela played with the Yankees for three seasons and was very impressive. During that span, he hit 41 home runs, drove in 153 runs, and slashed.292/.335/.480 in 291 total appearances.
Urshela was traded by the New York Yankees to the Minnesota Twins before being traded to the Angels for the 2023 season.
It’s unknown where he’ll end up, but numerous clubs are reportedly interested in signing him in free agency.
