The New York Yankees are currently seeking for bullpen help, and they may have a new target if they want to sign one of the best relievers in the game. A shocking trade that sent Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles has raised questions about whether the Milwaukee Brewers are open for business. Devin Williams, who has emerged as one of baseball’s finest closers, might be available in trade negotiations following Burnes’ departure, and the Yankees could have a chance to construct one of the strongest bullpens in the league.
On paper, this appears to be a no-brainer, but recent trends indicate that spending heavily in a reliever can be dangerous. Is Devin Williams an exception, or is he just another pitcher whose trade value will be way too high?
Is Devin Williams a worthwhile acquisition for the Yankees?
Devin Williams is without a doubt one of the top relievers in the game, posting a 1.53 ERA in 61 games at the age of 28. He throws a vicious changeup that earned him the nickname “Airbender,” and it’s a powerful pitch that opposition batters find tough to hit. Since his breakout season in 2020, Williams has a 1.75 ERA and a 40.5% strikeout rate, becoming the team’s primary closer after Josh Hader was traded a few years earlier.
Looking at the changeup, it generates -2 inches of induced vertical break with roughly 20 inches of arm side run, making it one of the top pitchers in baseball. He had a.097 batting average allowed on the pitch and a 42.2% whiff rate, and he’s emerged as possibly the best reliever in baseball. His 7.55 Win Probability Added is tied for the best number in baseball over the last two seasons, and it’s difficult to believe he wouldn’t be a game changer.
The importance of obtaining a reliever boils down to having an advantage in one-run games, which are frequently subject to volatility. The San Diego Padres, for example, had a great Run Differential, but their poor record in these close games kept them out of the playoffs. If the Yankees add Devin Williams, they improve their chances of winning close games.
The Yankees struggled to score in 2023, but this offense is expected to produce big numbers next season. It’s very feasible that with a better offense, a lockdown bullpen may help them win by one run and earn a higher postseason seeding. Sure, they may benefit from a starting pitcher rather than a reliever, but the beginning pitching market is not where the Yankees want it to be.
Acquiring Devin Williams would move everyone in the bullpen down the depth chart, resulting in a more dynamic unit with tremendous quality throughout the roster. In terms of starting pitching, a strong bullpen provides a bigger margin for error, which the Baltimore Orioles took advantage of throughout the season. Baltimore’s pitchers ended 15th in ERA- (99), while their bullpen enabled them reach the top ten (95).
A valid argument would be that the Yankees excel at developing relievers and hence do not need to spend heavily on the trade market on a bullpen arm. Despite their struggles last season, the Yankees finished with one of the top bullpens in the league, with arms like Ian Hamilton having breakout seasons. If the Yankees trade for Devin Williams, they may be investing resources on a player who, some think, only improves the club significantly.
The tough question is: what would the Milwaukee Brewers seek in a trade with the Yankees?
The Yankees have infield depth, whereas the Brewers do not, but it is also clear that what New York has to give is not as significant as some may believe. Oswald Peraza has made some physical progress in the offseason and appears to be in the finest form of his life, but that doesn’t guarantee on-field success. Making good swing judgments, maintaining consistent contact, and other aspects that go beyond physical abilities all have a significant impact on projectability.
Perhaps Peraza has a breakout season for the Yankees, but it’s evident that the former top-100 prospect isn’t as desirable on the trading market as many people believe. He’ll have an opportunity to prove people wrong this season, but if the Brewers don’t think highly of the slick-fielding shortstop, there’s no way he’ll persuade a team to trade probably the best closer in baseball two years before free agency.
Ben Rice, a power-hitting first baseman, has generated a lot of buzz in the organization and might grab the attention of a Brewers team that has Jake Bauers penciled in as the starting at first. Jorbit Vivas is another intriguing infield prospect who could draw trade interest, and his swing is ideal for right field at both Yankee Stadium and Milwaukee.
Pitching could be an issue for the Brewers, who may seek MLB-ready arms like Will Warren in exchange for Williams, and while we don’t know their views of these players, here’s what I’d expect a competitive offer from the Yankees to look like:
The Brewers may value individual players in this transaction differently than we do, but based on how I value them, I believe this will at least start a dialog. Instead of Lagrange’s upside, the Yankees might give a more MLB-ready arm, such as Luis Gil, who could start or pitch out of the bullpen. Perhaps they don’t regard Ben Rice as much, or they prefer Chase Hampton over Will Warren.
Another point to consider is if it is worthwhile for the Yankees in the first place; they finished first in bullpen ERA last year (3.34) and have a strong track record of developing relievers. Perhaps one of their smaller free agent deals converts into a high-leverage reliever like Ian Hamilton in 2023, and the team can wait until the deadline to determine their needs.
