How the Yankees could crack Corbin Burnes and the Orioles’ rotation
This week’s unexpected acquisition of Corbin Burnes, the ace of the Milwaukee Brewers, by the Orioles strengthened their position as the favorites in the AL East. The Orioles’ meticulous rebuilding project officially came to an end in 2023 when they defeated the Rays in 101 games to win the division title, but their pitching collapsed in the postseason.It appeared as though Baltimore would run it back with what they had and allow the talent infusion to continue because they had the most loaded farm system in baseball. Instead, they went out and won a Cy Young, making it very evident to the league that they are ready for a championship and that their window is open. Burnes has an amazing resume that includes winning the Milwaukee team’s 2021 NL Cyclone. He was an All-Star for three straight seasons and finished first in the league in 2022 with 243 strikeouts. Burnes will serve as the anchor and star of the rotation. John Means, Kyle Bradish, and Dean Kremer—all of whom have had varied degrees of success in the major leagues—follow him. Means had a successful Tommy John surgery a long back, but Bradish had a breakthrough 2023 campaign. Grayson Rodriguez, a gifted second-year player who has the potential to be an X-factor, comes in at number five. Here, I want to concentrate on the unknowns, especially with regard to the bookends of that rotation, who haven’t seen much action from the Yankees.
This upcoming season, how might the Yankees approach Burnes? Burnes is equally effective on both sides, therefore a simple platoon split is not necessary to tell the story. His main pitch and the cornerstone of his arsenal is the powerful cutter, which the Yankees’ older, slower batters will have to contend with. Burnes’ breaking ball sinking away from righties is a weakness shared by Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres, and he gets a lot of swings and misses with it. Chase rate will be important, particularly when it is outside the zone. Like most pitchers, Juan Soto’s outlook against Burnes appears promising. He will offset the pursuit advantage and push Burnes to hit anything thanks to his exceptional zone command and lineup protection. Thankfully, Soto slugged.609 and hit.326 versus cutters in the previous season. Burnes has only played in the National League for six years, thus not many Yankees have a long history with him. Much to Burnes’ dismay, Anthony Rizzo is 0 for 9 in his career against him and has struck out four times. Trent Grisham, a recent acquisition, has just one hit in seven at-bats. The most intimidating type of second-year athlete is Rodriguez, who learned and developed while making gradual changes and improvements during his rookie season. He pitched 76.2 innings with a 2.58 ERA in the second half, which was a significant improvement over his first half performance, which had him temporarily sent to Triple-A. With a fastball velocity in the 96th percentile and an extension in the 94th percentile, he can produce some very powerful strikes when he throws enough of them. When the Yankees witnessed this firsthand, they appeared to be outmatched: Despite the velocity early in the season, he had a tendency to leave it middle-up in a location that could still be hit. This excursion shows you that everything went smoothly once he figured out how to raise it higher. Despite this, batters against his four-seamer only finished at.342 overall. His terrific changeup really makes an impact, thus it appears best to hunt for fastballs early in counts. It’s not a good idea to go into deep two-strike counts against a guy who has a deadly changeup. To compete with these men, the Yankees’ left-handed hitters will be crucial, particularly since Rodriguez struggles to strike out lefties. The Yankees will be hoping for a clunker from Burnes the next time the two teams play. Having said that, he completely destroyed the Yankees in September 2023 for eight hitless innings, demonstrating in full what I had previously described as his repertoire: There is no denying that Burnes’ acquisition alters the Baltimore rotation’s makeup and increases both its potential and floor. Not only that, but All-Star Yennier Cano is out there in the bullpen with guys like Danny Coulombe who might shorten games, even if Félix Bautista is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Craig Kimbrel, Burnes’ fellow 2024 acquisition, can’t be written out completely, but he is a wild card when he hits the mound at this point in his career. The Orioles have finally made their move, and they appear formidable as they aim to win the division again in 2024. It’s still true that the Yankees have improved greatly this offseason, and Soto may be their best chance to defeat Burnes on a regular basis. The Yankees’ and Soto’s matchup with the new ace in town might have a significant impact on the AL East rivalry between the two teams.
