There’s no need for the Phillies to sign another reliever this offseason
Despite how slowly the offseason has gone, we’ve reached the stage where the middle-tier relievers are beginning to disappear off the market. Since Josh Hader was in a different tier than everyone else, it’s difficult to determine if they were waiting for him to leave the board, but lately, the trades have been coming in a little more frequently than they were. These players are relievers even though none of them were specifically targeted by the Phillies. Since Hader moved to Houston, several of the following names have crossed the dotted line:
Robert Stephenson
Aroldis Chapman
Matt Moore
David Robertson
Adam Ottavino
Hector Neris
Relievers are always in abundance when the offseason starts thanks to the proliferation of the one-year deal, so options are still out there if the team so chooses, but think about this.
In the most recent Phillies Therapy podcast featuring Paul Boye, a former member of The Good Phight, Matt Gelb raised an intriguing issue regarding those who are still accessible.Where would those names rank in the current Phillies bullpen composition, of those still available? Alvarado, Dominguez, Hoffman, and Strahm (or Soto), the team’s current top four arms, are most likely, if not definitely, better than anyone else who can be signed to the team.
They’ve reportedly been scouting players like Phil Maton and Jakob Junis, but at this point, they’re probably all hoping for a major league contract with guaranteed money. If they’re probably going to be the fifth or sixth best option in the hierarchy, is that something the team should be considering doing?
Not much has changed in the bullpen since Kolby Allard was signed to either push Dylan Covey for the long-man position in the bullpen or serve as rotation depth in the minor leagues, despite the fact that we have talked about it a lot recently. It would probably be best to stick with what they have now and see where they are at in July if the team is thinking about any of the two names that were previously discussed.
The team has a ton of minor league possibilities that are still on the 40-man roster that might be a better fit for what the team needs to do to start the season. Not only have I not yet mentioned Orion Kerkering, but the first five names listed above are all good choices that Rob Thomson can deploy early in the season without wearing out anyone else. That’s six strong names that the team would most likely call upon before anyone else. Of course, adding a player like Maton to the bullpen deepens it, but at what cost?
The team’s current luxury tax threshold, before any more acquisitions, is predicted by Fangraphs to be around $249 million. That is approximately $8 million less than the second threshold, after which there are slightly harsher tax penalties. Though it’s hardly something a wealthy team like the Phillies should be concerned about, who among us like paying more in taxes? Is there anyone available at this stage of the offseason who would persuade the team to extend their salary a little bit rather than hanging onto that little breathing room and waiting to see what becomes available in July?
As Gelb and Boye noted, at that point, more roster gaps might need to be filled if Cristopher Sanchez struggles as a starter, if Johan Rojas’s shortcomings are revealed once again, if an injury arises, and so on. Probably a better plan would be to just go with what they have and see whether Michael Mercado can improve and advance, Connor Brogdon can rediscover his form, or someone like Yunior Marte can manage his actions.
Sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing, as much as we might want the club to keep making headlines to talk about throughout the summer. Holding steady could be the best course of action, but it would be foolish to make one simply to make one, add a reliever, and appease a restless crowd.
