It will be difficult to defeat Detroit for the NFC crown even if David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs can outrush Christian McCaffrey.
SANTA CLARA: It was true in 1957 when the 49ers were down 27-7 at Kezar Stadium, but the Detroit Lions rallied for three touchdowns on the ground to win 31-27 and go to the NFL Championship Game.
It was accurate in 1983 when the 49ers managed to escape with a 24-23 victory at Candlestick Park after the Lions ran for 188 yards on 35 runs, including 114 yards and two touchdowns from Billy Sims in an NFC divisional playoff game. Detroit’s field goal attempt at the gun was missed.
And when the 49ers play Detroit in the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium on February 11th, with a trip to Super Bowl LVIII on the line, it’s a hard fact that traditional football will play a big role in determining which club ends up in Las Vegas.
With Brock Purdy and Jared Goff, the top-seeded 49ers (13-5) and third-seeded Lions (14-5) share a similar passing game that can go from excellent to great when the running game is on track and opponents are closing in.
Coach Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers stated, “The Lions stick with the run, regardless of who they play.” They carry it out each game. It occupies a major portion of their work. They have excellent balance. They remind me a lot of our offense, I believe.
The 49ers have depended on NFL leader and first-team All-Pro rusher Christian McCaffrey, who has 1,495 yards, as their top runner. The Lions, on the other hand, have Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Jahmyr Gibbs (945 yards) and veteran David Montgomery (1,015 yards). McCaffrey has scored 21 touchdowns. Gibbs, at 200 pounds, and Montgomery, at 224 pounds, have combined for 23 points; Gibbs received 10 and Montgomery received 13.
When Shanahan said the Lions were “a lot like us: he wasn’t kidding statistically.
The Lions were seventh in rushing this season with 2,311 on 500 carries and 27 touchdowns on the ground. The 49ers were slightly better, finishing fifth with 2,389 yards on 499 carries and also had 27 touchdowns.
Goff and the passing game have benefited from Detroit’s rugged offensive line, which is anchored by tackle Penei Sewell.
49ers linebacker Fred Warner observed, “They have big guys who are athletic and play with the right mindset, then you add the two-headed monster at running back in Montgomery and Gibbs.” “You have two weapons: your physical prowess as a runner and your quickness and speed. They can strike you on the outside as they run downhill.
The 49ers aren’t quite the immovable object they were a year ago, giving up 4.1 yards per carry against the run as opposed to 3.4 last season. They’ve had their moments of very strong play, but others in which they struggled — most notably against Cleveland, Arizona and last week in a 24-21 divisional win over Green Bay.
The Packers’ Aaron Jones became the first player to break 100 yards in 44 games against the 49ers with 108 yards on 18 carries.
Against the Lions, the 49ers have two backs to worry about.
“They do a great job running the ball,” 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks said. “I think the Montgomery and Gibbs one-two combination is probably the best we’ve seen all year. Different style of runners, but they’re both effective in what they do.”
In Wilks’ session with the media Thursday, the run defense was a consistent theme and the danger that lurks when overloading to stop it.
“You put a lot of emphasis on trying to stop those guys, so sometimes you get a little more aggressive, getting downhill,” Wilks said. “That’s not only with the linebackers, but also in the secondary, which now exposes you to a vertical passing game over the top. That’s something that we’re going to have to try to diminish and how you do that is trying to make them one-dimensional.”
One encouraging sign for the 49ers: The Lions, in their last regular-season game and playoff wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are averaging 87.7 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry.
If the 49ers can keep the Detroit runners under control, they’ll have a better chance getting after a relatively stationary target in Goff on passing plays.
When defensive end Clelin Ferrell suffered a knee injury, the 49ers lost a fairly anonymous starter on a team of stars. But Ferrell’s specialty happened to be setting an edge to turn opposing runners inside. He was replaced in the starting lineup by Chase Young, who is more explosive but not necessarily as disciplined when it comes to setting an edge.
“We definitely got hit on a lot of crack tosses and weren’t fitting ’em great, but it’s a play we’re going to see with them from (Gibbs) so we’ve emphasized it a lot,” defensive end Nick Bosa said.
Bosa thinks the 49ers will be better with defensive tackle Arik Armstead back for his second straight week after missing five games. In-season acquisitions Young and Randy Gregory have gotten better within the scheme and defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, Bosa believes, is coming off one of his best games.
Jones scored his 108 points for the Packers, but linebacker Dre Greenlaw cautioned against assuming there would be an automatic carryover.
“Aaron Jones is an exceptionally talented back.” He doesn’t run in a boyish manner. Are we concerned about Detroit running the ball? Greenlaw remarked, “He runs like he’s the largest player on the field. Our duty is to go out and put an end to it. It all comes down to knowing fits and trying our best so that, even in the event that the call isn’t ideal, it can still be fantastic.
“We are not in a panic over what transpired last week. We adapt, grow from it, and carry on.
